Chelsea are abysmal against anyone good under Enzo Maresca and Ange Postecoglou has betrayed his word. Yet they have more hope than Ruud van Nistelrooy.
The race for 11th
Here’s to a top nine of Liverpool, Arsenal, Nottingham Forest, Manchester City, Newcastle, Brighton, Bournemouth, Chelsea and Aston Villa, with Bournemouth winning the FA Cup, Chelsea lifting the Conference League (and finishing eighth) and Villa claiming the Champions League (and finishing ninth), while either Spurs or Manchester United finish 10th and win the Europa League.
That is all we need for a team to qualify for Europe by finishing 11th in the Premier League. Everton are seven points behind and David Moyes is already contemplating how he can help Villa get past PSG.
Nottingham Forest
The draw with Wolves at the City Ground in August might have seemed remarkable only in its unremarkability but it remains the single solitary occasion on which Nottingham Forest dropped but a mere point against a team currently lower than 10th this season.
That record alone has buttressed this ludicrous push for Champions League qualification. Forest are third in a Premier League table versus the bottom half and the two sides above them – Arsenal and Liverpool – have played more games against such sides.
If Forest were weirdly restricted only to counting their points accrued against the bottom half, they would still be 13th and level with Manchester United, ahead of Spurs.
That is patently ludicrous, but also sensational news for a side whose remaining games are against the teams in 4th, 9th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th and 19th, and who watched none of the four teams immediately below them win in the league this weekend.
Players and coaches won’t allow complacency to creep in and fans will refuse to acknowledge the elephant staring at them in every room they occupy, but Forest are pretty much already across the line if they just keep on keeping on.
Brentford
Of all the ridiculous statistics which sum up how quietly brilliant a job Thomas Frank has done, we missed perhaps the best of all: Brentford are the only club in Premier League history never to end a matchday in the relegation zone.
Christian Norgaard
Capped their first Premier League win by scoring from a throw-in, then secured their 50th in gloriously similar fashion.
The captain then vocalised the club’s desire to push for the European places, which this win away at a direct rival really did crystallise. While Brentford have one of the toughest run-ins on paper – their next five opponents alone are currently 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th – this was proof they can make the most of those abundant six-pointers and at least be part of the conversation.
Jorgen Strand Larsen
The quality of opposition and particularly defending notwithstanding, Larsen produced two completely different finishes and stepped up in the absence of Matheus Cunha.
He is the second-highest scorer among new signings this season behind Liam Delap, yet the brace against Southampton were his first goals in a Wolves win. Given a rare responsibility as the clear attacking fulcrum, Larsen stepped up.
Perhaps it shouldn’t be quite so surprising given the accuracy of his shots. Larsen has the highest percentage of shots on target (66.6%) of those who have had more than 20 efforts on goal in Europe’s top five leagues this season. Test the keeper at the very least two-thirds of the time and some are bound to go in. Especially if that keeper is Southampton era Aaron Ramsdale.
Marco Silva
No manager has made more goalscoring substitutions in the Premier League this season than Silva, who stands on the precipice of a career-defining campaign.
This is already as far as he has ever gone in the FA Cup and that eighth-placed finish with Everton in 2018/19 is firmly in the sights of a Fulham side which has only once lost as many as two consecutive games all season. That was back in October and Liverpool have just matched them.
Against Spurs they were in control and then made the changes to truly shift the needle of the game. From the bench alone, Rodrigo Muniz scored to complete a move Adama Traore was involved in, while Tom Cairney provided calm and composure in possession and Ryan Sessegnon secure the points late on with a sublime weak-footed finish.
As he racked up his 200th game as a manager in the English top flight, it feels safe to assume Silva knows plenty about the Premier League now. He might even get to expand his understanding of the Champions League soon.
Arsenal
Mikel Arteta was right to point out Arsenal “conceded almost nothing,” even if his assessment of Chelsea as “the best attacking team in the league” felt a little hyperbolic long before taking into account the visitors were without Cole Palmer, Nicolas Jackson and Noni Madueke.
Arsenal have matched that absence of first-choice centre-forward and chief chance creator for longer and it showed; they were far more attuned to the adjusted strengths and weaknesses of their alternative options and while there is no pretence that Mikel Merino can be part of the answer long-term, four goals – three of which have directly earned six points – and an assist in seven games will make any future smashing of glass in case of emergency a little more palatable.
This was Arsenal in a microcosm and in the Premier League that is all they really need to be: score early from a set-piece and control the game thereafter. They are not foolish enough to fall back on that in Europe but the imminent return of Bukayo Saka goes some way to solving that problem.
Arsenal against the Big Six
Since losing 4-1 to Manchester City at the Etihad in April 2023, Arsenal have played Pep Guardiola’s side, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United and Spurs for a combined Premier League record of P20 W12 D8 L0 F41 A18.
Across his first two-and-a-half seasons, Arteta’s record in those games was P27 W9 D2 L16 F30 A52. That is an incredible transformation.
Manchester United, the bullies
In their desperation to extract anything positive from this season, Manchester United have become the first club to activate their points guarantee of facing the bottom three home and away.
Five wins and a draw is a fine return that only Brentford, Liverpool, Nottingham Forest (all five wins from five games), Arsenal, Newcastle and Manchester City (all four wins from four games) can either match or beat.
It’s…something. Manchester United being able to consistently thrash Championship-level opposition at their absolute worst is proof they do have a floor somewhere, even if it has been systematically lowered.
Brighton
Never before have Brighton had more different goalscorers in a Premier League season, a number boosted by the free-kick expertise of Pervis Estupinan.
Only Arsenal can match them on that front in this campaign, Fabian Hurzeler’s first in England which he will complete having avoided defeat in four games against Mikel Arteta and Pep Guardiola.
The manager’s justified disappointment at not beating Manchester City away was proof of not only their progress but also how far they can still go. Brighton are in the best form of any Champions League contender and the Etihad hoodoo was the last obstacle they had yet to overcome since promotion.
Newcastle winning the Carabao Cup has potentially serious ramifications for Brighton’s European prospects, but they have numerous routes in and momentum behind them.
Everton
A 1-1 draw at Goodison Park with a centre-half playing at right-back equalising after Jarrod Bowen set up Tomas Soucek to score is pure, uncut, distilled and unapologetic Moyes.
It also means Everton’s current nine-game unbeaten Premier League run matches the best such sequence Chelsea and Manchester City have put together this season, beating Nottingham Forest (eight games), Newcastle (six games) and every other club bar Liverpool, Arsenal and Bournemouth.
That has seen them rocket from 16th to 15th, which is undeniably funny, but Moyes has now matched Sean Dyche’s points total for the season in 19 fewer games. Sir Jim wouldn’t have appointed him but Everton are back in the custody of the safest pair of hands possible.
West Ham
“Graham Potter has been talking a lot about how they’re trying to stop conceding goals. They were much stronger, much harder to play against today, not much room to run behind them,” said Moyes of his former club and there can be no higher praise when it comes to restoring organisation to a former rabble at the London Stadium.
The late equaliser was disappointing and the time will come when the defensive improvement has to be balanced with more evolution to their attacking game, but it is a neat development that West Ham had conceded the fourth-most goals when Potter took over and have conceded the fourth-fewest since.
Premier League losers
Chelsea
When they beat Aston Villa 3-0 at Stamford Bridge in December, Chelsea had an identical record to Arsenal down to wins, draws, defeats and goals scored and conceded. The only thing separating them was the intricacies of the alphabet.
Three months later, when the two sides met it resembled an older brother holding his younger sibling back with a finger on his forehead until they tired themselves out swinging wildly. Chelsea are at a completely different point of their evolution to Arsenal and it showed quite uncomfortably.
It is entirely worth drilling into individual problems – Robert Sanchez is not good enough, Jadon Sancho has been consistently poor for some time and the responsibility of stepping up to replace Palmer was shirked rather than embraced without exception – but when about half the team is playing out of position and £1billion has been spent to sign maybe three players around whom any meaningful future can be built, blame must be apportioned to the coach and directors too. You cannot purchase the equivalent of two new teams and then point to injuries when a handful of those players are unavailable.
That Villa win was the last time Chelsea beat anyone in the top half. Their only wins in 2025 have come against West Ham (16th), Wolves (17th), Leicester (19th) and Southampton (20th), then League Two relegation-battlers Morecambe and Copenhagen, who are off the pace in the Danish title race. Those are Championship-level results produced by a coach plucked from that very division.
READ MORE: Enzo Maresca needs to stop treating Chelsea games like training exercises as Arsenal coast to win
Yves Bissouma
Ange Postecoglou has frequently contradicted the claim that he “wouldn’t criticise a player publicly,” which always felt like a naive thing for a Spurs manager to say.
But his assessment of Bissouma, the lamb sacrificed at the Fulham altar at half-time of a 15th defeat of the Premier League season, was scathing.
“I just feel Biss can sometimes let the game drift by him. He needs to be a little bit more dominant in the way he gets on the ball. At times I think the game gets away from him and today we needed more in that position. I needed him to play though, because he hasn’t played a lot. At the same time you’ve got to perform. It’s fair to say, Biss and a few others are probably lacking a bit of confidence. That’s affecting him but we’re at the point of the season now where we need guys to get out there and put those things to one side and perform.”
That confidence is unlikely to have been helped by being hauled off at the break on three of his last four Premier League starts but as Postecoglou says, it’s a two-way street and Bissouma sometimes seems to be want to be overtaken.
With all eggs placed in the Europa League basket and nothing of note to play for in the Premier League beyond avoiding a club-record low finish, these games are less pressurised opportunities to establish form and earn the manager’s trust. They are being wasted on some of these players when an exciting academy cohort is waiting to be blooded.
Manchester City
It is incredibly jarring to hear Pep Guardiola refer to Manchester City having “nine games, nine finals” – and for Nico Gonzalez to parrot the point – in a run-in which will not feature them just winning every single match from December onwards en route to pipping Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool to the title.
But as small-time as it sounds from a champion crowned in six of the last seven seasons, it was a pertinent reminder that as relatively bad as things have gone, Manchester City could entirely realistically fall yet further from their perch this season.
It was sort of assumed that the rank surrender of their Premier League title simply meant having to settle for the embarrassment of mere Champions League qualification, but Guardiola’s side really might skip that rung on the ladder and perhaps even a few more; all clubs down to Aston Villa are within three points of them.
They have already conceded the most goals ever of any side in a league season under Guardiola, been beaten by three of their final nine opponents and were held by two others. Chelsea in the Conference League has been decent fun but it is time to see Manchester City against Gibraltar’s finest.
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Jeremy Doku
There is something deeply flawed in a team’s system if 30 successful take-ons across consecutive home appearances produce a solitary shot.
Bournemouth
A first four-game winless Premier League run since February 2024 has been disastrously timed to relegate Bournemouth from one of this race’s frontrunners to a side pushing up the back. One win can change everything – and they do host Ipswich next after the international break – but the Cherries are encountering the same problems and lack of solutions.
Once again they had more shots and produced the better chances. Once again they failed to take enough of them. Once again they let a lead slip. Once again they were susceptible at set-pieces – only Leicester and Southampton have conceded more shots from those situations, and Brentford absolutely preyed on it.
This has by almost any measure already been an excellent season for a side two wins off breaking their record for most points in a Premier League campaign, with an FA Cup quarter-final to come.
But there will be inevitable disappointment if Bournemouth cannot convert this position of strength into something tangible; without Europe it is easy to see how some of these wonderful composite parts might be snatched away by the usual vultures.
Ruud van Nistelrooy
It’s all a little bit Ole Gunnar Solskjaer at Cardiff, except Van Nistelrooy has already unwisely cashed in the tokens that guarantee him a galvanising nostalgia trip as the Manchester United caretaker destined never to use Sir Alex Ferguson’s old car parking space, which has presumably been demolished to cut costs anyway.
The Dutchman has still won and drawn as many games in charge of Leicester as he did at Manchester United, just with an additional and slightly sub-optimal 14 defeats to boot, the last eight of which have come without a single goal in response.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing but it felt like an atrocious decision to take the role and has quickly proven as such. Leicester are being propped up only by a Southampton side which is similarly ill-equipped for the upcoming Championship season, and neither can have any faith in their mid-season appointments playing a part in what need to be fundamental rebuilds from the foundations up.
And whatever Van Nistelrooy’s coaching reputation was in this country is left in tatters as a result; a manager with little discernible identity and no apparent suitability whatsoever to the complexities of the game in this league will either have to drop down or move elsewhere to put some incredibly harsh lessons into practice.
Ipswich
It has been a fundamentally abysmal calendar year, especially considering 2024 ended with the glorious defeat of Chelsea at Portman Road. Since then, Ipswich have conceded the most home goals of any Premier League side (18) and not won a single game outside the FA Cup.
Offering a single explanation for that wider drop-off is difficult but dressing a Championship defence in Premier League clothing hasn’t helped. Dara O’Shea has played three top-flight seasons in England and is about to complete a hat-trick of being relegated in each; Luke Woolfenden has never played at this level and Chris Wood showed no leeway; Jacob Greaves was shockingly poor; and Leif Davis has not been nearly good enough all season.
The defending for that third goal in particular was awful, completing the total collapse of Ipswich just before half-time after a decent start. No Premier League club has conceded more goals from the 30th minute to the 45th this season and it was painfully evident in that catastrophic spell.
Southampton
With nine games remaining, Southampton are on course to break the following Premier League records:
Fewest points in a season – 11 (Saints are on 9)
Most defeats in a season – 29 (Saints are on 24)
Worst goal difference in a season – 69 (Saints are on -49)
It has been a diabolical campaign and that first Wolves goal was shameful: zero pressure on the cross in, genuinely very possibly the worst example of man-marking ever seen from Armel Bella-Kotchap, and a strange choice of attempted save from the increasingly relegation-adjacent Aaron Ramsdale.
“We will go down,” confirmed Ivan Juric and while any other answer would have encouraged ridicule, it does beg the question of why he should see out the remaining months of a job he has summarily and miserably failed in because this latest Southampton remodelling must begin in earnest now rather than the summer.
When a manager with no future at the club is substituting their best player at half-time and digging him out as “a 20-year-old boy” who he “expected a little bit more of”, it isn’t difficult to see how his brand of coaching and man-management might do damage which lasts beyond this sorry season.
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