Data analysis has shown that Manchester United target Viktor Gyokeres would likely only score 15 goals in the Premier League were he to move this summer.
The Red Devils were incredibly wasteful in attack last season and have already agreed a deal to sign Wolverhampton Wanderers’ Matheus Cunha.
In addition, the club have made their first bid and are in active negotiations for Brentford attacker Bryan Mbeumo.
Nonetheless, head coach Ruben Amorim is said to have given up on starting striker Rasmus Hojlund and is desperate to land his former forward at Sporting CP, Viktor Gyokeres.
The Swede has been on fire this season, scoring 54 goals and providing 13 assists in all competitions.
The Telegraph have reported though that any potential suitors in England could expect Gyokeres’ production to slow down massively due to other players’ performances who have arrived from Portugal.
The report suggests that “Viktor Gyokeres is scoring goals for fun for Sporting Lisbon but history suggests attackers from the Primeira Liga do not fare so well in the Premier League.”
The research “analysed the 15 most expensive attacking Premier League signings from Portugal, France, Germany, Italy and Spain over the past 15 years”, in order to determine who carried the best goalscoring form over to England. The player’s goal-per-game ratio in their final season abroad was compared with “their subsequent goals-per-game record in England.”
The paper warns that none of the signings from Portugal have been able to match their output in England. Generally speaking, in the case of United and most Premier League clubs, players from the Primeira Liga do tend to adapt quite well in the Premier League.
Nonetheless, their production still significantly drops. This can be witnessed in the fact that Darwin Núñez, Luis Díaz, Evanilson, Fabio Vieira and United’s own Bruno Fernandes, have seen a decrease in the volume of goals they score in England.
The report adds, “even the likes of Díaz and Fernandes, who have unquestionably been successful signings, have been unable to maintain the goalscoring rate they showed in their final campaigns in Portugal.”
In fact, data highlights that players face a 62 per cent decline in goalscoring when they move from Portugal to England.
This stands to reason owing to the fact that the Premier League is objectively a tougher and higher quality league than the Portuguese equivalent.
The Telegraph claim, “these players averaged 0.41 goals per game in their last seasons in Portugal, and have subsequently produced an average of 0.15 goals per game in England.”
In fact, out of the 15 players analysed, only Raúl Jiménez scored at a faster rate in England than in Portugal.
Nonetheless, it must be said that none of the players scored at the colossal rate that Gyokeres has in Portugal. It is natural that he would be unlikely to be able to replicate his 39 goals in Portugal in the Premier League but even 20 would be a massive upgrade on the four that Hojlund managed last term.
What’s more, the Swede has already experienced significant game time in England owing to his experience with Coventry City in the past.
Finally, while the results are interesting, it also has to be mentioned that every player is unique and arrives in different circumstances. A hypothetical move to Old Trafford for Gyokeres would see him arrive at a team playing in a formation he is incredibly comfortable in and also with a manager who has got the very best out of him previously.
Featured image Carlos Rodrigues via Getty Images
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Alex Browne
Alex is a huge Manchester United fan, inspired by greats of his homeland such as George Best, Harry Gregg and Norman Whiteside. Proud owner of such niche shirts such as Kleberson, Eric Djemba-Djemba and Gary Neville. Grew up pretending to be Ruud van Nistelrooy and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in the back garden, with little success.
